Storms are brewing! Climate change along the Silver Coast

John O’Brien

Like all nations, Portugal is currently being buffeted by the impacts of climate change. Those impacts vary between its regions, but universally they have detrimental consequences for the environment and human livelihoods.
The primary impacts on Portugal’s climate come from the west, influenced by how changes to Atlantic Ocean currents will disrupt seasonal weather patterns. Squeezed between the western edge of the continent and the Mediterranean means that Portugal could suffer disproportional exposure to climate change, north to south and even west to east!
Already in 2024, the EU’s climate change service C3S reported global temperatures had exceeded 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels (i.e., before fossil fuels were being burned extensively), widely viewed as a critical threshold for irreversible change. Climate scientists frequently discuss so-called “tipping points”, i.e., scenarios where an environment can no longer withstand climate change and that result in catastrophic deterioration. When, or even if, the Silver Coast will experience such a tipping point is open to heated debate, but it is undeniable that the region will suffer climate-associated changes.

In a vice-like grip of sea and fire
The ocean clearly represents the greatest menace to the Silver Coast under various climate change scenarios. Principle among these will be erosion – already a considerable concern for many living along the coast. Not only are Atlantic storms becoming more frequent, they also appear to be strengthening, so wave surges are consuming ever more prime real estate. Given how much we adore sea views and building on shorelines, we still seem determined to challenge the Atlantic Ocean to a conflict we cannot hope to win. Even with very moderate sea-level rises under the most benign climate change scenarios, the topography of the Silver coastline is likely to shift, potentially flooding some of our region’s most beautiful locations.
Take Peniche for instance. Formerly an island, increased sea levels and consequently higher tides would again separate it from the mainland, perhaps requiring its citizens to begin researching the inflatable dinghy market! Similarly, popular São Martinho could see its iconic shell-shaped bay threaten the foundations of its trendy apartment blocks fringing the shoreline. And for Nazaré that is so reliant on the huge waves that attract scores of surfers from around the world, stronger and more frequent storms could be a blessing or a curse.
Shifting attention inland, altered weather patterns could dramatically disrupt the Silver Coast’s crucial agricultural production. Alcobaça is at the heart of the Portuguese orchard, with special EU recognition for its apples. It is here that a tipping point could become critical, with short-term gains from increased temperatures being rapidly eroded by weather conditions no longer suitable for fruit growth. Moreover, longer and more intensive droughts, already a feature of Portugal’s climate evolution, could endanger water supplies to farms, homes and industry, greatly limiting the Silver Coast’s productivity.
Where land has not been given over to fruit and vegetable production in the Silver Coast, it has been forested, typically with pine and non-native fire-prone eucalyptus. Anybody who has lived in this area over recent summers will be aware of the increased frequency of forest fire events, often raging unimpeded through the extensive plantations. Not only do forest fires endanger lives and livelihoods, they also exacerbate the climate crisis by releasing even more carbon dioxide and polluting particles into the air as smoke.
There are also potential direct negative impacts on human health from climate change, including heat-associated mortality that will disproportionately affect the very young and old, increased pollution contributing to respiratory ailments, and disease epidemics such as malaria and dengue fever due to climatic conditions being more favorable for their mosquito hosts.

Riding the wave of climate disruption
How is Portugal dealing with this existential crisis? With EU guidance, the Portuguese government is assessing climate change impacts and adaptation measures under the on-going National Roadmap for Adaptation 2100 (see ClimateADAPT), examining how regions can tackle and even take advantage of the changes coming down the line. Strategies range from physical interventions, such as reinforcing the coastal dune systems so critical to buffering against storm impacts, to agricultural diversification, encouraging landowners to consider new plant types more resistant to climate impacts.
Can the Silver Coast benefit from shifts in climate patterns? Perhaps, if its communities are sufficiently adaptable to the problems they can bring. Maybe tourists will look northward away from the sweltering heat of the Algarve, as long as the Silver Coast’s own beautiful beaches survive the gnawing ocean. And rather than apples and pears, could Alcobaça become famed for its citrus and mangoes? However, it is virtually impossible to foresee those outcomes, since they are reliant on human behavior, which is even harder to predict than climate.

Reference:
Portuguese section of the Climate ADAPT website:
climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu/en/countries-regions/countries/portugal

Acknowledgment: Lucy Gray (Feature editor) ■